Economist Calculates the Odds on
Egypt Air Flight 990 Ritual
Alignments


Egypt Air logo of Horus the Falcon god.

One of the ongoing projects at the Enterprise Mission has been the accumulation of data on "Ritual Alignments," the repetitive pattern of certain stars associated with ancient Egyptian gods showing up in ceremonial positions during key NASA or political events. As we have presented this data and the weight of argument has grown, a number of readers with  backgrounds in statistical analysis have stepped forward to offer to calculate the odds of these alignments happening by chance. In contrast to our critics -- especially the ones who have argued against the validity of the Cydonia "geometric relationship model" -- who have run like bandits rather than address the overwhelming odds, these readers have openly offered their expertise in an effort to confirm or deny our assertions. The first of these critical review papers was present by Mary Weaver just a few weeks ago. Now, another contributor, Robert Harrison, an economist by profession, has stepped up to the plate to determine the odds in a specific instance, the sacrificial downing of Egypt Air Flight 990. Mr. Harrison has asked us to keep all other details of his identity a secret for now. Here is his report.


Preamble


Dear Mr. Bara,

As you know I have taken a great interest in attempting to calculate the probabilities on the star alignments that yourself and Richard Hoagland have been compiling around NASA missions. The new study by Mary Weaver appears to provide the objective proof that some employees of NASA have indeed been attempting to match space missions to spiritually symbolic star alignments.

You may be interested in the following probability calculations concerning the very specific set of co-incidences to be found within the "star" alignments at the time of the crash of Egypt Air Flight 990. These conclude that the chance of these alignments occurring at the time of the crash, at the location of the crash site and at Giza are very improbable.

However, be warned. The fact that a single event is highly improbable is not proof of anything because highly improbable single events are occurring all the time without comment. The results of my study should therefore be viewed as just one more highly suspicious co-incidence that attached itself to the mysterious Flight 990 disaster. The idea that the crash may have been in some (mundane?) way the work of a religious cult would be consistent with the many co-incidences that you have observed. Therefore, it is a possibility that cannot be ruled out of the investigations.


JUST HOW IMPROBABLE WERE THE STAR ALIGNMENTS THAT COINCIDED WITH THE CRASH OF
EGYPT AIR FLIGHT 990 ?
By

Robert Harrison

Flight 990 began its death dive in a nine minute window just after --

(a) Comet Encke set only 3 degrees from true West - and -
(b) just before Alnilam (the centre star of Orion's Belt) set exactly due West
of Giza.

These star alignment's have special significance in the Hoagland/Bara model of the rituals of a theorised Egyptian/Masonic cult. The probability question to be posed is -

What are the odds against these specific alignments happening at these locations on the same day AND at the same time of day as the crash of Flight 990?

To answer this question it is necessary to break the problem down into a sequence of smaller steps and then cumulate the odds. These intermediate questions are -



(1) What are the chances of Encke and Alnilam setting within nine minutes of each other at the crash location and at Giza on the day of the crash?
(2) What are the chances of this nine minute window overlapping with the same time of day as the crash?
(3) What is the chance of Encke ("death") setting before Alnilam/Orion ("resurrection") ?
(4) What is the chance of Encke setting only 3 degrees off true West from the crash site?
(5) What is the chance of Alnilam setting exactly due West from Giza?

The minute by minute movements of Encke and Alnilam in the sky are independent from one another. To find the probability of these to objects setting in exactly the same minute of the day then we must calculate all the possible permutations between their positions during the 1,440 minute day. This is -

1,440 x 1,440 = 2,073,600, or one chance in 2,073,600. So this hypothetical co-incidence will occur once every 2,073,600 minutes or every 3.95 years on this initial calculation.

To find out the chance of Encke and Alnilam setting within nine minutes of each other on the same day then we must divide 2,073,600 by the number of possible permutations when Encke and Alnilam will be setting within nine minutes of one another. This is found by -

9 x 9 = 81..........then 2,073,600 / 81 = one chance in 25,600........ or once every 17.8 days (because one chance in 25,600 also represents 25,600 overlapping nine minute periods or 25,601 minutes in total).

There is now a further complication because Encke's eccentric, inclined, Earth crossing orbit, and the tilt of the Earth's axis mean that Encke can appear anywhere in the skies of the Northern or Southern celestial hemispheres. There will be days when Encke is too far North of the celestial equator to ever set at all. There will also be days when it is too far South of it to ever rise above the horizon viewed from the crash site. The crash site was on the 40 degrees North latitude which means that Encke will be in a position to set at this location on only 55.5% of days. So the chances of Encke actually setting at the crash site are - one chance in 1.8. This gives us our final calculation for this first question of -

1.8 x 25,600 = one chance in 46,080......... or once in every 32 days

(2) What are the chances of this nine minute window overlapping with the same time of day as the crash?

Even if Encke and Alnilam set with nine minutes of one another this period is unlikely to overlap with the time of the crash. In order to include the time of the crash the nine minute window must at least end at the same time as the crash or begin at the same time. This gives a range of 17 minutes.

So the chances of the nine minute window including the time of Flight 990's crash is -

1,440 / 17 = 84.7

Multiplying the answers to (1) and (2) now gives us cumulative odds of -

46,080 x 84.7 = one chance in 3,902,976..........or Encke and Alnilam will set within nine minutes of each other at these locations and at the same time of day as the Flight 990 crash once in every 7.43 years.

(3) What is the chance of Encke ("death") setting before Alnilam/Orion ("resurrection") ?

Encke and Alnilam set in a highly significant sequence as regards the theory. There are only two permutations, so the chances against this co-incidence is one chance in two.

The cumulative odds are now one chance in 7,805,952.........or once every 14.85 years.

(4) What is the chance of Encke setting only 3 degrees off true West from the crash site?

The chances of Encke being in part of the sky where it is possible for it to set at the 40 degree North latitude have already been dealt with in (1) above. For the 55.5% of the time that it is possible for Encke to set at this location it can set anywhere between the two most extreme setting places possible. These are almost due South and almost due North, giving an arc of possible setting places on the horizon of practically 180 degrees.

I have measured Encke's setting location as being 3 degrees off due West. This gives us a -/+ margin of error of 6 degrees. The extra odds of Encke actually setting within three degrees of due West are therefore -

180 / 6 = 30

Multiplying the answers to (1), (2), (3) and (4) now gives us cumulative odds of -

7,805,952 x 30 = one chance in 234,178,560............or once every 445.6 years.

(5) What is the chance of Alnilam setting exactly due West from Giza?

The setting place of a fixed star such as Alnilam is determined by the 26,000 year cycle of precession that causes a star's setting place to slowly creep around the horizon. As airliners have only been around for a minute fraction of 26,000 years it is more realistic (and honest) to assume that the setting place of Alnilam is frozen at due West for all time. During 1999/2000 Alnilam will always set due West of Giza regardless of the time of day that it sets.....and this coincidence in itself has implications for the Egyptian/Masonic cult theory of Hoagland and Bara.


CONCLUSION - THE CUMULATIVE ODDS

The above calculations show that the answer to our original question -

What are the odds against these specific alignments happening at these locations on the same day AND at the same time of day as the crash of Flight 990? -

-is one chance in 234.2 million.

This means that if we were to crash a plane every day, at the same time of day as the crash of Flight 990, at the same location as the Flight 900 crash site - then we would have to wait 445.6 years (on average) before a similar set of star alignments would be replicated.

(......or every 11.6 million years if we relax our freeze on the effects of precession on Alnilam).

Yours faithfully,

Bob Harrison.


By our agreement with Mr. Harrison, the Enterprise Mission will have no comment in this article on the meaning of his conclusions. We thank Mr. Harrison for his valuable contribution.