Return to Flight -- NOT Yet ... Maybe ... NEVER!?

So, the Shuttle Fleet is grounded because of foam coming off the Tank ... again.

Is this truly a surprise?

What is surprising is that the Space Agency told us ... while Discovery is still in orbit!

In striking contrast to the actions of the JPL management and scientific team controlling the increasingly mysterious Deep Impact Mission these past few weeks, NASA Shuttle managers overseeing the on-going STS-114 Discovery Mission have displayed a remarkable candor concerning both the potential problems with Discovery ... and the immense impact of these problems on the larger Shuttle Program.

Like -- telling us IMMEDIATELY they were "grounding" the entire Shuttle Fleet (!) -- as soon as the television images and digital stills were downlinked from the Mission, even before they were analyzed competely ....


John Shannon -- Space Shuttle Operations Manager -- foreshadowed this truly remarkable development when he stated at the first technical press briefing, the afternoon of Discovery's spectacularly successful launch:

"... I didn't come in with a lot of answers today. I came in trying to send a message that this is a test flight. And, we're very early in a six-day process. We're gonna share that with you as we go through it.

"We're not gonna keep data behind closed doors and try to understand it fully before we bring it out, we're gonna have you walk the trail with us. And we're gonna bring the information in as we know it, and let you share in it [emphasis added]...."

The Deep Impact Team should take a MAJOR hint ....

* * *

This "new" NASA does however raise some fascinating questions for an "old" NASA watcher like me:

Like ... why the sudden, almost embarrassing "openess?" Why the committment, so early in the Mission, to literally "let it ALL hang out?"

And ... why begin such a"new policy" ... before the current crew was back safely on the ground ... when such a policy could literally cost lives (see below) -- if not the entire Shuttle Program?!

I'm referring, of course, to NASA's (inexplicable, to me) amazing rush "to tell the whole world" -- and thus, all the literally thousands of NASA personnel working for the crew around the clock, trying to keep them safe in orbit, and to get them home alive ... and while the astronauts are still in flight! -- that NASA was suddenly, indefinitely--

Grounding the entire Shuttle Program!

Why not simply wait?

Why did NASA make its shocking announcement (certainly, to many of its NASA personnel, if not the Discovery crew itself) ... at (to me) precisely the wrong time--

In the middle of a Mission??!!

Why, indeed ...?

* * *

Morale is critical in any successful organization, certainly in a large-scale, complex operation such as a "manned" space mission. Literally thousands of people are involved in the Discovery Mission, from the managers at the top ... to the lowliest guy who sweeps the floor in the VAB, who's now specifically tasked with the critical job of looking for debris which could damage even one of those extremely fragile tiles ....

Why deliberately put all those people in a psychological tailspin -- by "blurting out," within literally hours after lifetoff -- at the very Beginnings of this long-anticipated Mission -- in effect, that "countless NASA personnel and NASA contractors' efforts had been wasted over these preceeding two and half years ...? Why tell them so precipitously, that the entire Shuttle Program has once again been grounded--

Even before Discovery returns!?

In other words, why deliberately kill the essential morale of all those countless folks, at the NASA Centers and contractors offices all across the Nation and around the world ... whose single-minded attention HAD "just moments before" been solely focused on getting this crew home safe and sound ...!?

For, after all the anticipation of the stakes involved in this critical "Return to Flight" Mission, with the stunning NASA announcement, instead of concentrating on their jobs -- analyzing "the condition of the tiles," or "the aerodynamics of the TV footage of the foam release--

--"Did it strike the Shuttle's wing ... or didn't it? Is the protrusion of those 'gap fillers' seen in the approach Station imagery REALLY going to cause a problem on Return ...?"--

--how many of those previously, deeply involved NASA technical and management personnel were suddenly, severely, inevitably distracted by the major personal question planted in their minds:

"I wonder if I'll even have a job tomorrow morning ... on this dying Program ...!?"

It'd be only human.

So, what was NASA thinking ..!?

Space Agency Deputy Shuttle Program Manager, Wayne Hale (above) could -- in complete consistency with Shannon's early promise -- still have shared all the data it acquired from the Mission: the close-up tile images, the radar, the surface scans of all the tiles by laser, the low-light-level television close-ups of the wings, the underbelly of the Shuttle, etc., etc. This would have kept all the media deliriously happy, while simultaneously keeping NASA's word ... but NOT giving away NASA's right to make a reasoned, thoughtful policy decision on behalf of both the safety of the crew still flying ... if not the political future of the entire Shuttle Program ... when the crew was safely back on terra firma.

Then -- and only then -- in my opinion, should such a major, far-reaching Shuttle Program decision have been publicly, officially announced ... when that announcement, by its timing, could not further endanger an already over-stressed crew ... and their critical human support system throughout NASA!

And, such a "reasoned process" would have allowed the literally tens of thousands of dedicated NASA employees -- the much discussed "NASA family," all over the world, who had given their "all" over the last two and a half years to make this flight finally happen -- a well-deserved chance to celebrate, even for just a little while, all the things which have gone right with this new Mission.

For the truth is that, for an "aging" spaceship over twenty years old and comprised of over 2.5 million separate parts, Discovery is doing a superb job of actually flying ....

If it just weren't for those damn tiles!

* * *

This, of course, will seem to some like a serious departure from my previous, often stated, decades-old position concerning "NASA's openess."

But, that pertains to data.

This pertains to lives.

There's an enormous difference ....

Watching the traditional "Sunday morning" televised interviews between Fox News, NBC, ABC and three members of the Discovery crew yesterday morning -- including, questions concerning their own emotions when they received the news that the Shuttle Program has been grounded while they're still in orbit -- it was obvious that the announced decision was causing more than a bit of stress among the crew, contrary to their own carefully worded statements in response to this very "loaded" question.

When each member was directly asked if the "grounding announcement" had "surprised or disappointed them," they all responded that they were "pleased that the Agency had taken such forthright action ... even while the Mission was on-going."

However, their eyes told a very different story ....

During these Discovery media interviews, one of the first things I noted was the abnormal "blink rate" of this crew.

Compared to interviews conducted on the ground, recorded previously, that NASA TV has been running literally for months late at night before this flight (and which I've had occasion to watch more than once ...), all the crew's rate of eyelid blinking has dramatically increased during this specific Mission.

According to the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin -- specifically, an article for June, 2003, "A four-domain model for detecting deception: an alternative paradigm for interviewing":

"... when people feel troubled or frustrated or they have a subdued temper tantrum, their eyelids may close or flutter rapidly as an expression of their sentiment. (12) Research also has shown that when people are nervous or troubled, their blink rate increases, a phenomenon often seen with liars under stress. (13) In one case where investigators closely videotaped the interviewee, observers in another room catalogned the subject's blink rate increase from 27 times per minute to 84 times a minute during stressful questions. Investigators should consider all of the eye manifestations that fall under the comfort/discomfort domain as powerful clues to how subjects register information or what questions prove problematic ...."

If anyone (besides myself) taped these interviews, simply look at ALL the indicators outlined in the FBI paper -- especially, the curious and truly fascinating increased blink rates -- and let me know your thoughts.

While certainly not definitive in and of itself, combined with the rest of the indicators of "less than total candor" discussed in the FBI paper, when applied to the STS-114 crew's media responses, these observations are most intriguing ... if not unsettling.

Because, why should this specific crew "feel troubled or frustrated" (as the FBI article describes, as one reason for such increased blinking ...) -- if, as NASA has been emphasizing since the high-profile "Shuttle Program grounding" several days ago, "though the foam loss means that problem MUST be fixed before another Shuttle flies ... this Shuttle and this crew 'dodged the bullet' ... and are in great shape to come home."

What if that's not true?

And, what if Eileen Collins and her crew -- despite NASA's reassuring public assertions to the contrary -- already know this?

The other possibility, of course, is that this covert "eyelid indicator" of increased stress among the crew is, despite their own assertions to Tim Russert on "Meet the Press" yesterday morning, directly the result of the amazing NASA decision to announce the grounding of all Shuttles -- including their own "rescue vehicle," Atlantis (even now being quietly prepped for a low-probability mission to go up and get this crew) -- before they had returned!

So, again, what was NASA (or, some part of NASA ...) really thinking?

* * *

As I was pondering this (to me) MAJOR mystery about this Mission, I got a very enlightening (if somewhat disconcerting ...) phone call last evening from one of my long-time "NASA sources."

He reminded me that, about two years ago -- after the Columbia tragedy, and as the realization shockingly dawned within NASA that the Shuttle's days were numbered -- we had a key discussion regarding some in NASA's "hidden agenda," regarding both the aging Shuttle Program ... and that other unspoken "NASA albatross" -- the International Space Station (ISS).

We'd discussed his discovering "a covert plan inside NASA," to "somehow" ground the Shuttles -- permanently -- long before the President's eventually-announced retirement date "of 2010!"

This would immediately free up (according to these planners) a LOT of (currently limited) NASA money to vigorously pursue the President's new Space Vision -- "back to the Moon ... on to Mars ... and Beyond" -- by providing funds desperately necessary NOW to develop the critically-needed successor to the Shuttles: the "Crew Exploration Vehicle" (or, CEV) ... years earlier than is now possible financially!

Such a critically-needed development program would represent the first new commissioned US "manned" spaceship (when actually flown ...) in more than thirty years! Without it, the President's "New Vision" will be permanently stuck in low Earth orbit ....

Moreover, if the Shuttles were to be pronounced "permanently unfit to fly again" -- far earlier than the President's current deadline of 2010 -- this could also free NASA from another "financial blackhole" (according to my source): the continuing need to keep pouring money into the "exploration dead end" (as the Administration really views it ...) of the International Space Station itself!

If the Shuttles were declared "unfit for further service" -- because their "foam and tile problems" were deemed SO severe that they literally COULD NOT BE FIXED "within any reasonable timeframe or expenditure of funds ..." -- the current US committment to its "international partners" in the Space Station Program, and its dependence on the Russian Soyuz vehicles to carry US astronauts to and from the Station, could be legally terminated!

NASA's use of Russian Suyuz spacecraft to send US astronauts to the Station will automatically terminate anyway at the end of THIS year (2005) -- due to a Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty which the United States has signed, which specifically prohibits NASA from dealing with Russia past that date ... if Russia continues supplying forbidden nuclear technology to Iran!

With the Shuttles again grounded with much fanfare in the last few days "because of the foam and newly-revealed tile problems," and the Treaty exemption for the current US use of Soyuz vehicles literally running out ... all it would take for the United States to be able to "gracefully" back out of the entire International Space Station Program (again, according to my source), would be if the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty exemption could not be renewed (it's at the President's discretion ...), and for the entire Shuttle Program to be permanently suspended--

Because the public overwhelmingly demanded it!

And, without the Shuttles ... the ISS cannot even be completed!

* * *

Does this explain the otherwise completely inexplicable ... a Space Agency so eager to declare the entire Shuttle Fleet "inoperable," that it couldn't even wait for Discovery to successfully come home?! Does it explain the sudden rash of "NASA openness" ... which, in this scenario, has actually been laying the groundwork for another "sudden public revelation": that even Discovery is unsafe to fly home ... without a "fix" in orbit ... in her current, increasingly ambiguous condition ..!?

And does this now explain the increasingly intense pressure on Eileen Collin's and her crew, "leaking out" in their subliminal communication: their unconscious increased blinking ... revealing their intense "feeling troubled or frustrated ..." -- because of their direct knowledge of their REAL Mission ... which, in this scenario, is only to provide sufficient excuse to NASA--

To permanently ground the entire Shuttle Program?!

And, given the Machiavellian nature of this obvious conspiracy (there, I've said it!) -- just how far would this "small cabal" in NASA go ... to accomplish their ultimate objectives?

Even my source truly didn't know ....

Addendum

On the nationally broadcast "Coast to Coast AM," with Art Bell, last night Major Ed Dames -- former military intelligence officer attached to the Defense Intelligence Agency -- "predicted" (via "remote viewing") Discovery's chances of returning safely to Earth as "only about 15%!"

Putting aside why a "professional remote viewer" wouldn't KNOW if the Shuttle will return safely (does he not "see it?"), Major Dames obvious former/current intelligence connections provide a far more credible source for such disturbing information, which only supports our own, totally independent source -- regarding a possible "hidden agenda" within NASA, being carried out by a tiny minority of personnel -- to potentially attempt in some way to "compromise" this Mission.

Of course, the "remote viewing angle" provides total "plausible deniability" for Major Dames -- in terms of his true sources -- should the unthinkable actually happen ....

Stay tuned.

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